One of the main goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to launch a sustained foreign policy counteroffensive to make Russia’s international isolation irrelevant.
Photo: Ayhan Altun / Getty Images
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tries to claim success in achieving this goal and strengthening Russia’s ability to influence the transformation of the world order, while noting that does not like illusions Regarding the prospects of 2025. Indeed, there is little food for illusions, as Moscow’s efforts to improve its position have produced poor results, while the latter part of the stormy 2024 has produced serious setbacks.
Continuation of the attack
A necessary condition for gaining positive momentum in foreign policy is to achieve consecutive victories on kinetic battlefields, and the Russian high command has thrown out all reserves to continue the offensive. The territorial gainshowever, it is negligible and the losses are increasing so much that the recruits are unable to compensate for the losses.
Whether Putin, as Commander-in-Chief, is fully aware of this depletion is anyone’s guess, but he is. to bargain About “importing” about 12,000 elite soldiers with North Korea. The performance of this infantry in the battles in the Kursk region was at its best middle levelbut close ties with the rogue regime in Pyongyang have damaged Russia’s standing in the so-called Global South, particularly among influential states. Southeast Asia.
BRICS: the image of a victorious and confident Russia
Russia’s claim to have won the war is indeed dubious, but its foreign policy has used every propaganda resource to spread it far and wide, especially India. The central stage for promoting the image of a victorious and self-confident Russia is the BRICS summit in Kazan and Moscow experts It was duly heralded as a major event in the destruction of Western-dominated global governance.
The summit was organized with great fanfare, but its real impact was limited at best, and the idea of creating a new currency invited his wrath The choice of the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, remains in the completely visionary category. One certainty is that Putin will not be able to participate The 2025 BRICS summit in Brazil, for the same reason (abbreviated as ICJ) it did not attend the 2024 and 2025 G20 summits.
It dominates the immediate neighborhood
From Moscow’s point of view, international influence can only emerge if Russia demonstrates its ability to dominate its immediate neighborhood. Therefore, significant resources have been expended to influence the outcome Elections in Moldovabut a large diaspora vote gave President Maia Sandu a new mandate to pursue a pro-European course. Even greater efforts were aimed at bringing Georgia closer to Russia’s political center of gravity. manipulated elections indeed it ensured victory for the party controlled by the corrupt Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. Large-scale protests took place in Tbilisi great new year partythey argued that any deviation from the pro-European orientation carries the risk of starting another “color revolution”.
Georgia may be recognized in Moscow as the main state of the South Caucasus, but it is currently facing a deep crisis in relations with Azerbaijan. missile strike On the flight J2-8243 from Baku to Grozny. It was the order to send the damaged plane to the bottom of the Caspian Sea to the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan that caused so much anger in Azerbaijan that President Ilham Aliyev felt compelled to do so. hard position and demands that Moscow take full responsibility. Putin was obviously taken aback by such outspokenness and issued only one statement elliptical sorrybut the limits of Russia’s influence and its new dependence on its neighbors, who maintain channels to circumvent Western sanctions, are suddenly becoming apparent. still an ongoing crisis.
The regime is falling in Syria
The “black swan” that dealt the most effective and completely unexpected blow to Russia’s foreign policy is the rapid collapse of the dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Putin is working deny the fiasco and to claim that Russia has fulfilled all its obligations, but not to support a client in dire straits seems obvious. Moscow experts Try to explain this fiasco by blaming it on Israel or Turkey, but the main concern is clearly access protection to the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval facility, which are crucial to ensuring the deployment of mercenaries in Africa. The new leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, launched several airstrikes on the Russian province of Idlib. these basics and need no persuasion from the foreign ministers of France and Germany joint trip In addition to Damascus, Moscow irritation.
Pressure to end the war in Ukraine
What makes the loss of power in Syria all the more painful for the Kremlin is the expected expansion of US influence as the interim guidelines drawn up by the incoming Trump administration become pro-active policies. As expectations of a deeper split in the Western coalition mix with concerns about brusque pressure to end the Ukraine war, anxiety about the coming zigzags in US decision-making is higher in Moscow than in Brussels or Beijing. Trying to preempt this peacemaking, the Kremlin reinforces the message of peacemaking peace terms At the expense of Ukraine, and Lavrov called the ceasefire a “the road to nowhere“. This ostentatious militancy does not even appeal to China, or even to other states trying to promote peace initiatives and of course he gets angry President-elect Trump, who has yet to be confirmed in Washington, may be prone to posturing and bluffing, but he low tolerance acts for others and tends to take rejection of his views as a personal insult.
Show confidence
Putin excels at showing confidence, and at the beginning of 2025, he will really improve his international ratings they have improved. Sober self-deprecation has never been his forte, but denying the accumulation of problems in Russia’s war-torn economy and downplaying failures like Syria can only do so much. From investment to the environment, Russia’s insignificance on most issues of importance to the Global South is evident and growing, and Moscow’s penchant for conflict manipulation with a shrinking toolkit worries many parties interested in stability in various conflict-ridden regions. .
The undiminished ambition for major “pole” status in the imagined disorderly multipolar world that drives Russian foreign policy rests on a shrinking resource base and damaged reputation. Putin’s desire to play a central role in global affairs will be frustrated, which could make his behavior more erratic and dangerous.
