The ever-changing battlefield dynamics of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have made it impossible to accurately correlate forecasts with the political calendar. This unpredictability is especially acute on the eve of one of the most critical events of 2024 – the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to be held in Washington on July 9-11.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks in Washington in June 2022. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
More recently, Russian belligerence has included renewed efforts to increase pressure on Ukraine, thereby fueling the rift between the transatlantic allies (see EDM, May 28June 3, 10). These efforts were focused on an offensive operation in the direction of Kharkov, which had gained some ground in the first few weeks, but was now exhausted and retreating.
The hostilities have reached an unstable balance, giving NATO and its partners an opportunity to reassess their strategy for defeating Russian aggression calmly and cautiously.Nezavisimaya newspaperJune 26).
Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that Russian troops retain the initiative on the battlefield and will receive new weapons systems, including medium-range missiles that Moscow will soon begin producing (IzvestiaJune 28).
Putin’s statement suggests that the tactical fiasco in the Kharkiv region is a strategic failure for Moscow, as several key Ukrainian allies, including the United States, have agreed to allow Kiev to use long-range weapons systems to strike military targets on Russian soil. see EDM, June 3; InsiderJune 24). The accuracy of these strikes depends on the provision of real-time intelligence, and Kiev’s Western partners can help determine the correct target coordinates. Meanwhile, Russia’s High Command is still seeking permission to attack US-made RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper drones over international waters in the Black Sea, a high-risk escalation (IzvestiaJune 29).
On the one hand, last week’s near capture of an unarmed US drone by a Russian Su-35 fighter jet in Syria and a possible direct strike in the Black Sea theater could overshadow the NATO summit (The Moscow TimesJune 28; RIA NovostiJune 29). On the other hand, such a move could prompt Ukraine’s partners to focus more on coordinating joint increases in arms and ammunition supplies to Ukraine for the coming months.
A way for Ukraine to join NATO
The issue of determining the ways for Ukraine to join the alliance, which prevailed at the previous NATO summit in Vilnius, has begun to be resolved with a number of bilateral agreements on security obligations, including the most recent and recently signed agreements with the European Union. Agreement to be signed with Poland (Forbes.ruJune 27; Lenta.ruJune 29). These agreements are a step towards Ukraine’s future NATO membership, not a replacement (see: EDM, May 16, 20).
The arrival of several squadrons of F-16 fighter jets, along with increased artillery fire and the gradual strengthening of air defense systems, could change the course of the war in the coming weeks. The Czech initiative to jointly purchase artillery shells from various (often undisclosed) sources helped undermine Russia’s superiority in firepower, which Moscow sought to maintain by importing munitions from North Korea.Nezavisimaya newspaperJune 25). A deal to supply Israel with several batteries of MIM-104 Patriot systems, which Moscow still hopes to derail, has significantly increased Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian missiles.TASSJune 28). The Russian side is trying to maintain its air superiority by launching missile strikes on bases preparing to deploy F-16s and threatening to hit facilities in Poland and Romania. The carefully crafted plan by the Allies’ “F-16 coalition” is definitely on track (RBCJune 20).
Quality of weapon systems
Ukraine’s ever-increasing superiority in the quality of its weapons systems is beginning to neutralize Russia’s main advantage in trench warfare – its large reserves of manpower.Re: RussiaJune 27). Available data on Russian casualties is not precise, but a cross-examination of demographic statistics with evidence from social media and anecdotal sources paints a fairly accurate picture of the heavy toll the war took on young and middle-aged Russian men (MedusaJune 27; Republic.ruJune 29). In the late spring and early summer of this year, the losses were greater than the number of new soldiers from conscription and conscription (Novaya newspaper EuropeJune 27). The Russian prison population cannot provide enough “volunteers”. On June 27, the head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, reported on a new campaign to pressure labor migrants from Central Asia into the ranks of Russia’s dwindling battalions.SvobodaJune 27).
The high demand for labor has degraded the Russian economy (see EDM, June 26, 27). The economy is struggling to keep up with inconsistent instructions to expand military production and maintain pre-war public consumption standards, despite rising inflation fueled by high budget spending (InsiderJune 25). Ukraine is also suffering economic devastation as Russia seeks to maximize the disruptive effects of power outages by continuing its missile strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure (Finance.uaJune 18). Ukraine’s ability to weather the downturn is increasingly dependent on external financing, including a new $2.2 billion loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund.RBCJune 29).
Western solidarity
The European Union continues the flow of economic aid and has taken an important step in starting negotiations on Ukraine’s membership (SvobodaJune 25). Ursula von der Leyen, elected for a second term as president of the European Commission, plans to take a firm hand in EU politics, and Ukraine remains a top priority (KommersantJune 28). Moscow evaluates the appointment of the current Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, as the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy as evidence of the intensified “Russophobia” in the EU strategy (Mk.ruJune 29).
The rising trend of Western solidarity will undoubtedly gain new momentum at the NATO summit, where the strategic goal of ensuring the defeat of Russia is strengthened. Moscow has no reason to expect that Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary General, will “understand” its ultimatums and adhere to its “red lines”. Putin hates to see Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy give new impetus to his leadership in charting a course to bring an ugly war to a just peace. Even the Kremlin leader’s nuclear summit is unlikely to spoil this result.
