As the 33rd month of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, no dramatic change is expected on the battlefield.
The Kremlin has instructed its propagandists to wax poetic about the unique importance of the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov /Photohost Ag/Anadolu via Getty Images
Ukrainian forces are slowly advancing in Russia’s Kursk region, making Russian forces pay dearly for every small advance in Donbas (MedusaOctober 16; Republic.ruOctober 17). Kiev and Odessa come under fire from Russian missile attacks, Ukrainian drones strike Russian arsenals and oil depots, and prisoner-of-war exchanges are frequent, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) acting as mediator.RBCOctober 19). Despite slow progress on the front lines and little change on the battlefield, Ukraine’s behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering campaign is gaining momentum.
A significant change on the battlefield
After presenting the “victory plan” in the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy continued his visit to the main capitals of Europe, visiting the main partners supporting Ukraine, including the Council of Europe and the meeting of defense ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). EDMOctober 18; IzvestiaOctober 19). Zelensky’s proposal to the Verkhovna Rada was met with applause, although some of the proposals in the plan remain classified (Svoboda.orgOctober 16). The gist of Zelenskiy’s message is that a bold move toward victory—in other words, a significant shift in the balance of power on the battlefield—is a prerequisite for any future second peace summit to be productive (Nezavisimaya newspaperOctober 16).
Zelensky is sure that such a turn in the trajectory of the war is real. This is based on the assumption that Ukraine will receive a steady flow of foreign military aid and that such a change could happen if restrictions imposed by Western allies on long-range missile strikes on military targets in Russian territory are lifted.Nezavisimaya newspaperOctober 17). Ideas for a ceasefire, stronger security measures and even an invitation to NATO are gaining traction among Ukraine’s European allies. All possible developments on this front are carefully monitored by Moscow (Forbes.ruOctober 13).
It prompts a diplomatic attack
New (and much needed) support for Zelensky’s diplomatic offensive came from US President Joe Biden (NV.uaOctober 18; RBCOctober 18). During his visit to Germany, Biden met with a number of European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and they declared their unequivocal support for Ukraine.KommersantOctober 18).
Although French officials tried to invite Ukraine to join NATO, the assembled group did not publicly comment on the victory plan (The Moscow TimesOctober 18). In addition, no official statement has been made regarding the great power’s position on the use of long-range missiles, although such a change would be better behind the scenes in order to preserve the element of surprise in terms of military effectiveness. However, their joint position was a strong assertion that the war was an existential threat to the Western alliance, that there was no local conflict that could be managed by clever diplomacy and resolved by territorial compromise (Re: RussiaOctober 7).
BRICS summit
Experts in Moscow try to play down this message, saying that Europeans are unwilling to pay for their own defense and shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine (“Rossiiskaya Gazeta”October 17). The main theme of Russia’s attacks on the Western community, however, is that it coincides with the wishes of the “global majority” to be demonstrated in BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping originally composed of Brazil, Russia and India). , China and South Africa) summit will be held on October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia (“Rossiiskaya Gazeta”October 16).
The Kremlin instructed its propagandists to wax poetic about the unique significance of this gathering (RIACOctober 15). All possible measures are taken to make the cauldron look beautiful on this occasion (MedizaOctober 17). What makes this event special for Russian President Vladimir Putin is the possibility that he will miss the next BRICS summit in Brazil. This is due to the country’s commitment to complying with the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant if Putin attends in person – just as various parties ruled the 2023 summit in South Africa, which Putin would prefer to eventually attend virtually (KnowledgeOctober 18).
Moscow is trying to create an image that it is interested in ending the war and that it is favorably inclined towards a peace initiative promoted by China and supported by Brazil (RIA NovostiOctober 18). However, this idea is completely wrong, and the leaders of major countries in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East know very well that Russia is primarily interested in exploiting violent conflicts and promoting instability in the world (Carnegie PolicyOctober 17). These countries may believe that Zelenskiy’s peace plan is far-sighted, but few are fooled by Russia’s apparent lack of any peace plan, which suggests that Putin is on a path to permanent war (Novaya newspaper EuropeOctober 19). The “importation” of about 1,500 special forces from the pariah state of North Korea supports this conclusion (The Moscow TimesOctober 16).
Russian state budget
Further evidence can be found in Russia’s 2025 state budget, which allocates far more funding to the defense sector than originally planned (see EDMOctober 3). For the first time, the new budget envisages a significant reduction in spending on education, pensions and other social programs (Re: RussiaOctober 4). Russia’s partners in the Global South may be inclined to take the Kremlin’s promises of domestic stability for granted, but they cannot ignore the unhealthy consequences of Russia’s economic militarization. It is reported that militarization has cut Russia off from most traces of technological innovation and prevented the country from investing the necessary resources in the important energy sector (Svoboda.orgOctober 1; see EDMOctober 16; MedusaOctober 19).
Zelensky expects and demands greater effort
Zelenskiy expects and demands more from the Western coalition to mobilize support for Ukraine than fractured societies and risk-averse political elites are willing to do. However, his persistence reflects his determination to continue on the path to a just and lasting peace that will ensure Ukraine’s security and well-being, while also providing new peace dividends to all European states that currently have to pay for Ukraine’s and their own armaments. It would also serve the interests of major powers such as India, Brazil and Turkey, who now find some opportunity to benefit from war, but who are more likely to prosper than a lasting peace in Europe.
While Putin’s regime is a major obstacle to peace — formidable and dangerous, admittedly — even China, the Kremlin’s main strategic partner, would not describe it as insurmountable.
