October 30, 2024
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In the hottest year, US voters Will Decide the Climate Way Forward
Global temperatures through September indicate that 2024 and 2023 have been the warmest years on record. How many future record years are set depends in part on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election
Mount Amanda; Source: Gavin A. Schmidt/NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (the data)
As the US stands on the precipice of one of the most important climate change elections in history, one of NASA’s top climate scientists has warned that 2024 is “almost certainly” the hottest year on record. If so, it will flip a remarkable record achieved last yearbringing home the path that man has set for himself.
The consequences of our choice to continue burning fossil fuels that release heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere go far beyond these temperature records. They are more and more clear in the destroyer heat waves, hurricanes and other extreme weather events that have cost hundreds of lives and billions of dollars only in the US this year. They experience and result in more subtle changes in climate that affect crop yields and food prices. worsening the health of millions.
Thousands of climate science studies have made these conclusions clear it will only get worse for the next generation unless we start reducing our emissions quickly and significantly. The The upcoming presidential election will be a pivotal point for the US It will determine whether the country will continue the significant climate action launched by the Biden-Harris administration, and it may. will lead to significant reductions in emissions—or whether, with the possible re-election of former President Donald Trump, he will encourage unfettered fossil fuel production and put few protections on emissions.
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According to global temperature data collected through the end of September, 2024 is likely to be 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average global temperature from 1850 to 1900. a point before greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels begin to accumulate significantly in the atmosphere. Under the 2015 Paris climate accord, countries agreed to try to limit warming below that threshold of 1.5 degrees, and below “good” two degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
Mount Amanda; Source: Gavin A. Schmidt/NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (the data)
According to NASA estimates, 2023 was 1.36 degrees C (2.45 degrees F) warmer than pre-industrial times, taking the title of hottest year on record. Gavin A. Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, based on temperatures through the end of September 2024 and a statistical model. calculated the average global surface temperature for the whole of 2024 it will be about 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, give or take a couple hundredths of a degree. That may not seem like a huge increase, but annual temperature records are usually set in the hundreds of degrees, and it takes a huge amount. to raise the global temperature of heat that much.
The UK’s Met Office previously predicted the planet would have at least one year between 2023 and 2027 above the 1.5 degree C mark. One year does not mean that the goal of the Paris agreement has been met; average for many years, but it shows how close the world is to surpassing it.
Climate scientists say nearly all of last year’s and this year’s record temperatures are due to rising levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has just confirmed CO22 reached a record of 420 parts per million in 2023. “These are more than statistics. Every part of a million and a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of NMM in a final statement.
last year El Niño event— which happens when the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than normal, with cascading effects on global weather — gave global temperatures a small boost, as it always does. Since the effect of this cyclical natural climatic phenomenon tends to be delayed by a few months, the temperatures have also risen slightly this year.
in one Bluesky social network post seriesSchmidt noted that when his predecessor, James Hansen, testified before Congress about the dangers of climate change in 1988 (when carbon dioxide concentrations were 351 parts per million), that year was the hottest on record. The evidence “in my view represents a very strong case that the greenhouse effect has been detected, and our climate is changing now,” Hansen said in his testimony.
1988 is now the 31st warmest year on record.
Every year of the 21st century has been warmer than 1988. In fact, every decade since then has been warmer than the previous one. Any record set this year will no doubt be broken for a long time.
But the body of climate science research that underscores the threat we face for so long also makes clear that we are not doomed to perpetually hotter years: we have a choice in what the future climate looks like. As a climate scientist at Texas A&M University Andrew Dessler recently wrote on his blogwe know that if we stop emitting greenhouse gases, the Earth will stop warming. And, he added, we basically have the technology to ditch fossil fuels, especially in the form of renewable energy and battery storage. The main obstacle is political. This means that the votes we will cast in the elections – and especially in these elections – will be among the main choices we will make for that future.
