KLIMAWIRE | Forecasters warned for days that Tampa could be looking down”big” — a direct hit from a major hurricane that threatened to drench much of Florida’s second-largest metro area with an unprecedented storm surge.
The nightmare scenario did not happen. Hurricane Milton made landfall in Sarasota County on Wednesday night as it moved south of its worst track. The storm surge was generally lower than the water levels driven by Hurricane Helene two weeks earlier.
However, the storm was still a record, dumping historic rains on the coast and spawning tornadoes that carved a path of destruction in several counties.
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Scientists say climate change, including unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, likely worsened its explosive intensification into a Category 5 cyclone before it weakened and made landfall as a Category 3.
“What we can say is that the storm was significant, but fortunately this wasn’t the worst case scenario,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a news conference Thursday morning.
Tampa was spared in large part by a southward sweep on Milton’s runway in the final hours before landfall, sending the storm into Sarasota.
That doesn’t mean the National Weather Service forecasts were wrong, said Austen Flannery, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Tampa office. The landing still occurred well within the cone of uncertainty of the prediction.
“Overall, the end result was pretty consistent with the forecast,” he said.
Early estimates suggest the biggest storm surge was in Sarasota County, possibly around 8 to 10 feet. That’s significantly less than the 15 feet the National Weather Service had warned was possible for Tampa.
However, widespread flooding still occurred across the state – partly due to high tides, but largely due to heavy rains.
Parts of Tampa received more than 10 inches of rain. Tampa International Airport has 11.73 inches According to the National Weather Service. And the nearby city of St. Petersburg saw almost 19 centimeters of rain, a monthly record.
“In two days, we had more rain in that area than ever in October,” Flannery said.
Strong winds also blasted the Tampa Bay region, downing trees and power lines, damaging homes and businesses and tearing the roof off Tropicana Field, the home stadium of the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg. Preliminary datasets The National Weather Service has reported gusts in excess of 100 mph in parts of Tampa and Sarasota County.
Milton also caused tornado outbreaks across the state, including at least 45 individual tornado reports and 19 confirmed touchdowns. The outbreaks prompted more than 100 tornado warnings across the state in a single day, a Florida record, according to local meteorologists.
Scientists are still trying to figure out why Milton got so twisted. Aspects of the storm’s track and movement in the Gulf and its interactions with other weather systems as it moved across Florida likely fostered favorable conditions for tornado formation.
“It will take time and scientific analysis to really understand the exact reason why this happened,” Flannery said.
Another climate driven disaster
Climate change helped fuel Hurricane Milton’s record-breaking track, scientists say.
The storm rapidly intensified as it crossed the Gulf, gaining winds of more than 90 mph over the course of 24 hours. It broke the scientific definition of rapid intensification, which the National Weather Service describes as an increase of 35 mph in one day.
A record Gulf water temperature was the main driver of Milton’s explosive power. A study by research and communications nonprofit Climate Central found that Milton’s trail water temperatures were in between 400 to 800 times more likely occurring as a result of global warming.
In general, researchers have found that hurricanes are getting stronger and faster as the climate warms. This means that a greater proportion of tropical cyclones are likely to upgrade to monster storms like Milton in the coming decades.
Hurricanes are also getting wetter as temperatures rise. A warmer climate can bring out more moisture and bring more precipitation, meaning Milton’s historical precipitation may also look to the future.
Milton’s notable tornado outbreaks are more complex.
The links between tornadoes and climate change still exist misunderstood compared to many other extreme weather events. Research indicates that the overall frequency of tornadoes probably hasn’t changed much due to climate change, but their geographic patterns have it can change over time and causing more outbreaks in parts of the Midwest and Southeast.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution research consortium, which specializes in links between climate change and extreme weather events, are expected to release a rapid analysis of Milton’s links to global warming on Friday.
Meanwhile, research has already confirmed that Hurricane Helene—which hit Florida’s Gulf Coast two weeks before Milton—had. clear links to climate change.
A World Weather Attribution study found that extreme precipitation in Helene was about 10 percent heavier due to the effects of climate change. And in southern Appalachia, which experienced historic flooding, global warming has made these types of precipitation events 70 times more likely to occur.
Reprinted E&E News Courtesy of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
