Editor’s Note (10/9/24): Hurricane Milton made landfall on October 9th around 8:30 PM EDT near Siesta Key, Florida. At that time, Milton It was a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Hurricane Milton It’s heading toward Florida’s west coast, and thousands of people are fleeing their homes to inland counties—or even other states. Fifteen counties, including the densely populated Tampa Bay area mandatory evacuation has been issued orders for those who live in high risk storm surge and flood areas. There was traffic massively stackedand about some gas stations running out of fuel.
“When I looked at (Hurricane Milton) on Saturday, I thought, ‘Oh my gosh, this has got to be a joke.’ We don’t see that often in the Tampa area, where you obviously have something that’s going to be very strong,” said Lindsay Peterson, South Research assistant at the University of Florida, studying disaster planning. older adults and long-term care facilities. Peterson evacuated his home in South Tampa earlier this week. “I know a lot of people are scared now. They didn’t leave, and now they feel like they can’t get out because the roads are full and people are fighting at the gas station for gas.”
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A Category 4 storm is approaching Hurricane Helenawhich hit Florida two weeks ago and crossed five other states, killing more than 200 people. many people still trying to get their lives back in the aftermaththey are now dealing with this new system that could bring storm surges twice as large to the Tampa Bay area.
“Our soil is completely saturated,” says Claire Knox, professor and director of the University of Central Florida’s Master of Emergency and Crisis Management, “and now you have this massive system that’s going to bring it eight to eight. A 12-foot storm surge on the West Coast (Florida), probably five- about seven (of the state) on the east coast.”
American scientific He spoke with Knox and Peterson about the challenges and considerations climate-related evacuations are—and how the often harrowing decisions and risks involved can affect people’s physical and mental health.
(Following is an edited transcript of the interview.)
What factors are considered for hurricane evacuation orders?
KNOX: There’s a lot at stake. FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), in collaboration with two other agencieshas a tool called HURREVAC where emergency managers can review nearby hazards, potential evacuation zones, different scenarios, different hurricane categories, expected landfall times. All of these come into play, and the tool will help you make assessments: What is your cleaning time? How many hours will it take to evacuate different (storm and flood) areas, different populations? You want to get your more socially vulnerable, coastal areas, people in mobile homes and campers out first.
That’s the plan then inform the elected officials. The mayor of that jurisdiction has the final say. The emergency manager is just an advisor—he’s giving these elected officials information and details, and it’s up to them to heed or wait for that information. There are many legal challenges. There are many political pressures.
PETERSON: It’s a large area of evacuation orders on the west coast of Florida, that’s it millions of people. The possible problem is that most of us are not terribly affected in this area. So when this is all over, people will wonder if it was necessary. What is happening now is that many people are being evacuated, and many of these people must be evacuated; some of them don’t. But for now we don’t know that; it is better to be ready than to act too late.
Why might some people be unable to evacuate or choose not to?
KNOX: What we find in our research is that individuals are more likely to evacuate (if there’s been a disaster) in their recent history. During the time we saw the evacuation record Hurricane Irma In 2017, that was on the back burner Hurricane HarveyThe one that just hit Texas. The devastating flood was in the national news. It was on people’s minds, and that was one of the reasons we saw record evacuations from Hurricane Irma—6.5 million evacuees. Helene was recently and is on people’s minds, watching disaster in North Carolina and throughout Florida’s Big Bend. Based on the research, there is a greater chance that these people will take these evacuation orders more seriously.
People’s perception of risk is really interesting. Someone might say, ‘Oh, two years ago, four years ago, 10 years ago we weren’t affected by a storm.’ Well, we’ve had a lot of development and land use changes in Florida. This will change the way water flows and interacts with the land. That was, unfortunately, something we saw with new developments on the west coast of Florida Hurricane Ian (in 2022); the water had no place, so it entered the houses. Also, this person is much older than 10 years ago, so they have different needs. Often, people do not consider these components in their decision-making process.
In our research, we found that one of the best determinants of whether a person will decide to heed some type of mandatory evacuation is whether neighbors or friends are leaving. That social network is still really important in that decision-making process. So with social media, we’ve become so disconnected from each other that we often don’t think to check in on our neighbor. I’ve seen resilience efforts to bring back social capital in our society, and I think that’s really important, especially in times of crisis.
How do these climate emergencies affect people’s health—physically and psychologically? How might this affect people’s decisions to void?
PETERSON: There is a mental component to evacuation. As the time approaches, if you haven’t evacuated and you need to, I think a little bit of panic sets in. This prevents them from thinking clearly. And there is also great denial. There’s a strange sense that if you stay, your home will somehow be protected, and we see that in a lot of older adults. It’s not rational, but I think that people want to think that they can do something, if necessary, at the last minute. But there’s really little anyone can do. A lot of unrealistic thinking goes into it, mainly because it’s something people don’t do a lot. You also think about the meaning of a house to people, and it’s terrible for everyone, but it is really giant with age. A house can be the last home for some people. Everything they will have in their lives is in that house. It is very difficult to leave behind.
Some people just have practical problems with nowhere else to go, not knowing where to go, being afraid to go to a shelter or figuring out where the shelters are in advance. Especially if someone is caring for someone who is vulnerable, it’s hard to make that move to leave because you fear that person will be okay in a shelter. People may be afraid to go because they are caring for someone with dementia or autism; maybe someone is very nervous or sensitive. For someone with cognitive or mental issues, shelters are a very difficult place. They are noisy, chaotic. If you are caring for someone with an illness that requires electricity or specific medical care, there are special needs shelters for those people. Some will pick you up and take you there, but you may need to arrange and let them know in advance. All of this requires planning ahead, mentally and physically.
What should people know while evacuating?
KNOX: We tell people to run ten miles, not hundreds of miles. This relieves congested roads, allowing resources to stay in place. Ideally, you should not leave your region. You should go to a shelter. We see that more than 50 percent of people prefer to go to a shelter at home with friends and family rather than go to a hotel. What we found in Hurricane Irma is that people were going through empty shelters. People were going three or four counties up from Miami, and those shelters there were overflowing then. In a recent Hurricane Irma poll, more than 50 percent of people moved to another state. Now, there are different reasons for this: it can be family. But ideally, you want to get out of immediate flood zones and storm zones; you want to go deeper.
FloridaDisaster.orgIt is managed by the Emergency Management Division, a the list special needs shelters. It will let you know where those hostels are in your region. According to Florida state statute, the majority of our schools are designated shelters. Each Florida county’s emergency management office has websites with all the listings. You are also seeing this information communicated through various social media platforms. We’ve seen them use Nextdoor, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, in addition to traditional media.
What are the evacuation procedures that might be more accessible for people who can’t afford to go to a hotel or for family members who can stay with them?
KNOX: There are new partnerships with the private sector. There is list of major hotel chains that the governor released that they are doing very discounted rates. They are also allowing pets in their hotels, or waiving the pet fee to get people to go. If you use a certain code, Uber walks to shelters. We also see partnerships with Airbnb where they are making discount rates.
How can emergency responses be improved?
PETERSON: I think for everybody, wherever you are across the country, it’s about paying more attention to the risks. We have more and more people moving to new areas. In California, fire-prone areas that may not have been populated in the past are now populated. You’re moving people into areas that may be subject to flash flooding. Climate risks are increasing. Our populations are growing, and the population of vulnerable people is growing. Everyone has a part. People, scientists and public safety officials need to think about what’s going on at the top, analyze the frequencies and project where the risks will be in the future, and make plans for it.
