Israel and Gaza
Israelis, if they could, would vote for Trump by a wide margin – the polls make that abundantly clear. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will likely be limited.
Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution than it has been in decades. No US president is likely to change that. President Harris is likely to put more pressure on Israel to reach a ceasefire and open negotiations with the Palestinians. But he is unlikely to cut military support to Israel.
President Trump, as part of the Israeli government, would perhaps be less concerned about Israel allowing Jewish settlers to return to Gaza. He also takes a more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t know exactly which side of the bed he will wake up on. You get the sense that he is more risk-averse than he appears, and he recently ruled out trying to topple the Iranian regime.
Because of this unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he can benefit more from the Harris administration. Thus, Israel’s internal thinking may be more nuanced than it appears.
Russia and Ukraine
This is an election of great importance for Russia and Ukraine.
Some Ukrainians worry that Trump will try to sign a peace deal soon, which is convenient for Russia. But they also fear that American support for Ukraine could wane under Harris’ presidency. Some Ukrainians also say that Trump may not be so bad: after all, it was during his presidency that the US began sending anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.
However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees less of a difference between Trump and Harris over Ukraine than we might think. He believes that regardless of the outcome of the election, America’s commitment to Ukraine will eventually weaken.
Putin wants a deal, something he can call a win. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. Therefore, he believes that he can reach this agreement only in negotiations with the US president. He publicly endorsed Harris. It may seem disingenuous or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with it.
There is one way that a Trump victory would unequivocally strengthen Putin: It would mean an America less engaged in the world and in Eastern Europe, which Putin sees as his legitimate interests.
China
Whoever wins, the next president of the United States will be a mess for China. But people I spoke to in Beijing differed on which candidate would be better for China. The exchange centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.
Chinese economic officials are well aware that Trump has called for routine tariffs on Chinese exports, which could pose a serious threat to the Chinese economy. It is a country that depends heavily on foreign demand, especially from America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, which offsets China’s very severe housing market collapse.
Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees the benefits of Trump winning the election.
China feels increasingly influenced by the efforts of the United States, especially the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and, above all, Taiwan. Harris will likely continue those efforts. Trump is less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.
And Trump has shown less interest in defending Taiwan. This is very well received in Beijing.
Europe and NATO
For Europe, this election in the US, whatever the outcome, feels like the end of an era.
Depending on who you talk to in Europe, Trump’s victory is either a nightmare or a gift. Europe’s growing group of nativists in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere see Trump as the leader of their movement. If he regains the White House, he will normalize and strengthen their hard line on immigration and national identity.
Meanwhile, most Western European leaders are deeply concerned. Trump’s talk of imposing a 20 percent tariff on everything sold to America, including European exports, could spell disaster for the European economy. And, of course, Trump has repeatedly talked about leaving NATO.
Even if the US doesn’t officially leave NATO, if Trump says, “I’m not going to fight for some small European country,” it could destroy the alliance’s credibility.
If Harris wins, there is a sense that he too will be busy at home and take more interest in China and expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a sense in Europe that Biden may be the last US president to be personally committed to the Cold War-era alliance.
Global trade
Donald Trump says that “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” It is more beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”
So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trading system, a choice that US voters make that could affect the entire world.
If elected, Harris would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something more, more aggressive, imposing tariff levels not seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on Chinese-made goods.
That would cost more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports and likely lead to multiple trade wars as other countries respond with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, less income and growth — essentially a poorer world.
Can Trump do it? Yes, it can. It has wide legal powers. And that means the United States is violating major international trade rules it helped create.
South Africa
There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite Trump’s vulgar dismissal of African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways, he resembles many autocratic African leaders.
Harris, who is in Africa, is known for spending time in Zambia when he was growing up, as he is the grandson of an Indian diplomat. And the fact that he is of African descent resonates very deeply. It is seen as much of the continent.
Biden — and possibly Harris — wants African countries to decarbonize because many still use fossil fuels for energy. Trump probably wouldn’t have that focus, and so his presidency might be desirable to countries that want to keep burning coal, oil and gas instead of dragging themselves kicking and screaming into a clean energy transition.
South Africa feels squeezed between the West, with which it has the strongest economic ties, and the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems that if Trump wins, he will be more isolationist and will have no problem watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia move closer to BRICS.
Mexico
If Trump is elected, Mexico will face serious problems. Tensions will almost certainly increase on the US-Mexico border. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner and could face heavy tariffs. And he will be next door to a president who has threatened to use the US military on Mexican soil.
But Mexico expects a tougher immigration regime regardless of who wins. Under President Harris, this would likely mean continuity with the policies of the Biden administration, which have become more restrictive over time. Migration is a common issue. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to reach the US border, and the United States cannot control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s help.
Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, mostly to Latin America — though experts doubt he will succeed. But even a small number of deportations can have big consequences across the region.
Mexico has some leverage. But its leaders could indeed be cornered by a bold Trump. And they know it.
Climate
The stakes couldn’t be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any other country in history and is now the second largest carbon emitter behind China. What he does next will affect the entire world’s ability to prevent catastrophic climate change.
If elected, Harris is likely to continue Biden’s policies of shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. Whether it would limit oil and gas production is less clear, since the United States now produces more oil and gas than any other country.
Trump, if he wins, cannot completely undo the policies of the Biden era. But it could undo dozens of measures regulating emissions from cars and power plants, destroying the country’s ability to reduce emissions quickly enough.
Trump’s actions could also leave China without serious competition in renewable energy technologies such as batteries and electric cars. China is already leading the race.
Whoever wins the US election, the energy transition is already in motion. But speed and scale are important. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the climate and the world.
