President Trump, Ukraine said they want the “Deal” to stop “this ridiculous war”. President Vladimir V. Putin’s call and a meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week, the expectations of the three-year fight between the United States and Russian officials increased the expectations.
How did these talks actually work? Who will be involved? What does the bargain look like?
The New York Times, in the first week of the war in Ukraine and Russia, was reported in the first week of the war in Ukraine and Russia held direct talks could not reach the peace agreement.
At this point, we have a guide to the potential of Ukraine’s peace talks to sum up what we know.
Currently, Ukraine has several options to return the latest earnings in Russia’s battlefield. This means that any transaction is likely to attract painful benefits by Ukraine, which may seem like a rewarding Mr. Putin’s aggression. This means that Russia will be a difficult deal of Russia.
However, Mr. Putin may have their own incentives to conclude a contract. The Russian economy is at risk of inflation fleeing in the war in the war, and if the body loses 1000 or more per day. A settlement over Ukraine can lead to a decrease in Western sanctions.
Negotiations would be very complicated. Many doubts will negotiate Mr. Putin with good faith, and Europe and Ukraine are in a hurry to contract with the Kremlin on top of Mr. Trump’s heads.
Still, Russia and Ukraine, in the spring of 2022, took a hood to surprise Russia and Ukraine. Some experts believe that Mr. Putin will maintain a number of sovereignty for Ukraine.
Who is on the table?
Biden’s management wanted Russia to diplomatic isolation, and any talks on the fate of Ukraine have to attract Ukrainians. Mr. Trump was broken while discussing Ukraine in one of the approach on February 12 call for a long time Together with Mr Putin, the conversation, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said he would “inform”.
Ukraine that is now isolated. Mr. Zelensky said he was not invited Disputes This week, Mr. Trump and Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia are among the best helpers.
European countries can also be cut – Since the start of the war, Europe’s general assistance to Ukraine is about $ 140 billion large More than what the US is given.
Mr. Trump said he would soon meet Mr. Putin in Saudi Arabia, “Probably” Mr. Putin. Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are already mediated by Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea prisoners and navigation.
Territory
Ukraine will never know that no change will know the boundaries. Russia claims a threshold of Ukraine in four regions, not about 20 percent of the country, but also in four regions.
A possible compromise: freeze the battle.
Russia continues control over the area that has already seized, but stops the struggle for more. It does not officially recognize Russia’s annexation because Ukraine and Western Russia protected the extensive territorial claims. It can be resolved peacefully at the future point in the future, and in peace talks in 2022, as a peaceful settlement for the status of Crimea for 10 or 15 years, it has been a peaceful solution to territorial disputes.
And wrinkles: Kursk.
Ukraine is still an area of 200 square miles in the Kursk region of Russia. Russia rejected Ukraine’s idea that this country can use this country as a bargaining chip. However, before Russia excluding Ukrainian troops Ukrainian troops, Ukraine can still find a way to find a way to withdraw from the Kursk for discounts by Russia.
NATO and AB
While Ukraine wants to get back the captured area of Russia, this is also has announced the future security At least it means protection from Russian aggression.
Ukraine describes NATO membership as the key to this protection. Russia describes Ukraine’s probability that the Union has been connected to its security as an existential threat.
Trump management has already expected Russia to find its way here.
Opening Ukraine to make a member of the European Union, it can be presented as a compromise, not NATO. 2022 Before failing to fail, Russian conversant agreed in the language of the contract project, which will be the contract, which will be the agreement to “be in line with the European Union.”
Security guarantee
NATO membership, Mr. Zelensky, to protect any ceasefire, sailed to the place of 200,000 foreigners in 200,000 foreigners. Analysts say Cannot produce west such a great force. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of England, gossip On Sunday, his country will be ready to commit a large number of peacekeeping troops.
However, Russia wants its “security guarantee”, ensures that Ukraine will not try to reconstruct and return the Russian-occupied area. This wants to ban the size of the military unit of Ukraine and the country from the country.
This needle is seen as the most difficult part of any negotiations threaded. A specialist group led by Marc Weller, has a Cambridge International Law Professor in Peace Talks prepared a potential agreement This imagines a compromise: the placement of a small international force for both Russia and Ukraine and Ukraine to maintain peace on the frontline, as well as 7,500 people.
Weller suggestion, if he restarted hostility, imagines emergency sanctions against both sides. This will allow Ukraine to cooperate with limited joint exercise and weapons production and military exercises.
There will be no permanent placement of foreign troops, but Ukraine can receive a small number of technical employees. And Ukraine will be banned from more than 155 miles.
Ceasefire mechanics
The sustainability of any peace may be hinged into hinged hinges in hazelnuts and bolts of a ceasefire contract.
Former Swiss diplomat Thomas Griminger, the former Swiss diplomat, which has been in ceasefire in 2015, flags the three main issues.
First, Russia has agreed on the “line of contact” separated from Ukraine’s territory. Next is a “dedication zone” or buffer, between opposite forces, a “detergent zone” to prevent powerful weapons firing or misunderstanding. Third, it must be a way to capture both sides at the expense of ceasefire violations.
“It can be very technical” language in agreements In matters, Mr. Griminger, as the feed zone and ceasefire work, now consider the Director of the Geneva Security Policy Center. However, he said that this language “can be very decisive regardless of whether the ceasefire.”
NATO in Eastern Europe
Mr Putin’s war is not only related to Ukraine, but the West claims to accept a new security architecture in Europe.
A few weeks before the occupation, he presented an ultimatum Requires NATO expansion to the east and not withdraw much of Europe. On February 12, Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin warned about the “need to overcome the root causes of the conflict” The Kremlin said.
This means that Russia is likely to make good demands from Ukraine’s own fate.
America allies claim that NATO’s retreat in Europe will increase the risk of a Russian occupation for countries such as Poland and Baltics. However, Mr. Trump, along with doubt about American deployments abroad, can be affordable for such an agreement.
All this will make for an incredibly complex conversation. Mr. Griminger, who is at least three negotiations, which is at least three negotiations, which is able to go to the game, seeing at least three conversational games, see: US-Russia, Russia-Ukraine and Russia-Europe.
“At least you have three levels,” he says. “There is no shortcut.”
Trump and Putin
Mr. Putin also has demands from the territory and security. In the 2022 peace talks, Russian conversions tried to eliminate Ukrainian identity, and demanded that the country will establish an official language formation and after Ukraine’s independence fighters. These issues are likely to revise.
Mr Putin can also try to use Ukrainian settlement to gain other benefits of Mr. Trumman, as the relief of sanctions. However, this is the desire for Washington, some analysts believe that some analysts can represent the biggest incentive to cut a contract.
“Putin wants to have a longer, productive relationship with this management,” he said. “He must be ready to make concessions.”
Andrew E. Kramer Contributing report.
