Have we already breached the 1.5°C global warming target?

In the last month, researchers confirmed that it was 2024 to see the average global temperatures in the first year Lift more than 1.5 ºC above the previous level of industry. It was a symbolic moment, seeing the world’s collective goal, set in 2015 Paris AgreementLong-term heating to keep 1.5 ºC. But the scientists stressed that this goal is based on average temperature of 20 years, so the global efforts to deliver there are still – technically at least – at least – at least in the game.

However, experts demand more and more Shorter periods of high temperatures The world could be a sign that already broke 1.5 ºC. Can we conclude that this goal has bitten the dust?

Emanuele Bevacqua At the Environmental Research-UFZ Center in Germany and his colleagues have the only warm year to investigate whether long-term warm-term heating can be a sign that will soon reach.

Using real-world observations and climate models, Bevacqua and his team were already examined the heating thresholds between 1981 and 2014. They found Pre-Industry reference exceeds 0.6 ºC and 0.8 ºC and 1 ºC and 1 ºC 1 ºC and 1 ºC. .

According to this measure, the only first year of more than 1.5 ºC is used to define 1.5 ° C for long-term heating scientists in the world. “It is very likely that we are already within 20 years,” Bevacqua says. “It is likely that the first 10 years (period)”.

Discoveries, long-term heating that will reach 1.5 ºC 1.5 ºC in the early 200s in the early 200s. The “optimistic result” is according to the investigators already advertised, says Paulo Ceppi Imperial College in London.

But the monthly temperature data can tell you more about another story. June 12, 2024. It was a month with the average global temperatures in a row above the previous level of industrial levels at least 1.5 ºC. In a separate study, Alex Cannon In the environment and climate change, the global temperature used by Canada to reach 1.5 ºC 1.5 ºC, at the time of the 20-year temperature average 1.5 ° C crossing.

Found that, in climate model simulations, running 12 months consecutive 1.5 ºC It represents the probability of each period, with a long-term heating for long-term 1.5 ºC, although it has accounted for natural variability like El Niño phases. “If you go back in the real world, that means a good probability that we have passed the long-term threshold (to 1.5 ºC),” he says.

However, the conclusion is based on a climate model that assumes the Earth’s atmosphere is responsible for changes in CO2 concentrations. The model is also high emissions stage, notes Duo chan University of Southampton, United Kingdom. “I will interpret the result with caution,” he noted. Cannon stated in the study and the climate sensitivity of the model is temporarily temporarily staged in a medium emission scenario, probably in the long run of the 1.5 ºC threshold, in line with the estimates of the wider community.

The consequences are also based on models that are able to accurately represent all the drivers to warm up and predict variability between the year-on-time. “If the models underestimate this variability, then they would exceed the probability that 1.5 ºC passed above the threshold,” says CEPPI. More research is needed to check that climate models simulate short-term variability, it gives him in particular Doubts About effects like aerosol reduction. Aerosol reflects the sunlight of the solar atmosphere, so the use of cleaner shipping fuels can increase heating.

Such a doubt means that one-study results are due to excessive results. After all, the Paris agreement is an important political covenant and declaring one of the dead and buried key goals would have seismic consequences. “(To answer) Ask whether to pass the level of temperature mentioned in Paris, we should have high scientific certainty, and we don’t have that,” says Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Climate analytical in the Berlin Research Institute, who helped in the Bevacqua study.

Cannon says, with the results of his research, “I don’t say enough information (that the goal of 1.5 ºC is broken) with any certainty”. The problem, says, the climate models that predict this scenario did not expect the last record temperatures. “The inconsistency between time is the patterns and what we really saw.”

This means that the model is missing something that explains The last rise of real warming of the real world. Most climate models do not take into account Aerosol reduction from submissionIt is a possible explanation. Cannon says his work “We need to understand things better” warning flags “are not supported.

Whether the goal of Paris has arrived, even too early, it is somehow to split the hair. “We are accessing the world of 1.5 ºC,” SchleusSner says, warming levels very close to this critical threshold. “The effects of scientists told us will take place around 1.5 ºC (warming) surroundings.”

“The truth is that the objectives of the Paris agreement is to hang on balance,” he stressed. “If we continue on the current track, we will fail.”