NELSONVILLE, NY — Voters in a ring of congressional districts surrounding New York City where Republican candidates often do well but Donald Trump The battle in 2020 could decide which party controls the US House for the next two years.
Eleven districts within 90 miles of Manhattan are expected to be among the most contested House races in the country. On election day.
Republicans now have a slim 6-5 edge near the circle that starts in the suburbs of Long Island, runs through western Connecticut and New York’s Hudson River Valley and Catskills regions, and runs through eastern Pennsylvania before returning to New Jersey.
Both parties have a chance to pick up seats in the vast territory of dense, leafy suburbs and former mill towns. Democrats have made the region an important part of their strategy Restoring the majority in the Housebut the voters of the suburbs have been far from thinking in the last election.
They have come together in two key ways: most have been open to Republican candidates, but they have also shown distaste for Trump. That means the former president’s top GOP poll this year could be decisive in congressional races if opposition to him doesn’t soften or regional voters aren’t willing to split their tickets.
Trump lost to the Democrats Joe Biden In 2020 except for two of the 11 constituencies. Two years later, voters in seven of them sent Republicans to Congress. In three districts won by Republicans in 2022, and in two others held by Democrats, Trump lost to Biden by at least 10 percentage points, according to polling data tabulated by The Associated Press.
It’s unclear whether the political dynamic that helped Republicans do well in the 2022 midterms exists today outside of New York City. During that election, many suburban voters were concerned about the rise in violent crime following the COVID-19 pandemic. But since then the crime rate has gone down.
“The 2022 message environment made the battlegrounds very uphill for Democrats,” said former U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, a Long Island Democrat who once served as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But in a presidential election year, with a fierce campaign against Vice President Trump Kamala Harris“message environment is defined at the top of the card.” said Israel. “In these districts, this tends to become a referendum on Donald.”
The ability of Republican candidates to overcome Trump two years ago was illustrated in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a suburb north of the city that is home to the hamlet of Sleepy Hollow, Sing Sing Prison and luminaries such as Bill and Hillary Clinton. Billionaire George Soros.
Trump owns a golf club and a private estate in the district, but he still lost to Biden there by 10 percentage points. In 2022, Republican Mike Lawler narrowly defeated U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, a decade-long incumbent Democrat.
Now, Lawler is running a tough campaign against Mondaire Jones, a former Democratic congressman who was one of the first two openly black men to serve in the House when he was elected in 2020. Jones lost his seat when it came to his district boundaries. redrawn
Both candidates have focused their strategies on attracting moderate voters, and have criticized each other for aligning themselves with radicals.
“People are waking up to the fact that even if they don’t believe Mike Lawler is as bad as Marjorie Taylor Greene, they can’t vote for him because he empowers the chaos and extremism we’re seeing in Washington,” Jones told the Associated Press, referring to the far-right Georgia lawmaker.
Democrats have also claimed that Lawler wants to ban abortion, which the Republican denies. Lawler said Democrats are trying to mislead voters on an issue that has been a victory for many Democrats since the Supreme Court ended constitutional protections for abortion rights in 2022.
“It talks about not talking or not having anything else to talk about, from the economy to the border to international crises around the world,” Lawler told the AP.
Lawler’s approach has worked with voters like Michelle Patterson, 71, who lives in the town of Nelsonville in a small house decorated with Trump flags and Republican lawn signs.
He described Lawler as “common sense” and Jones as a “radical” and said Democrats are trying to distract voters with warnings about abortion access.
“He doesn’t advocate banning abortion!” he said of Lawler.
For other voters, it’s a harder sell.
“I don’t believe him,” said Jill Ferson, a 77-year-old social worker who lives in the town of Croton-on-Hudson, when asked about Lawler, who said she would not support a federal abortion ban.
Ferson said his biggest concerns in this election were keeping Trump out of office and preserving abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
A similar dynamic emerges in other ring districts.
In Long Island, Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is trying to hold on to a congressional district outside New York that Biden won by 15 percentage points. D’Esposito is trying to cast Democrat Laura Gillen as soft on crime while criticizing Democrats for immigration policies that she blames for the influx of migrants.
Gillen, a former town supervisor, has dismissed those criticisms and said that if elected, he would push for more law enforcement and border security.
In the city’s northwest, Democrat Josh Riley is trying to unseat U.S. Rep. Marc Molinaro, a Republican, in a rematch of a close race in 2022. The district stretches from the Hudson River Valley to the Finger Lakes.
In some New York districts, Democrats may ask questions about the impeachment of the New York mayor Eric AdamsHe has pleaded not guilty to accepting bribes and illegal campaign contributions. But Adams isn’t on the ballot, so voters may not care about that. While some Republicans have used the scandal to assert widespread corruption in the Democratic Party, Trump has spoken warmly of Adams, portraying his indictment as politically motivated.
In eastern Pennsylvania, the presidential battleground, there are incumbents who have the skills to survive in three constantly contested congressional districts. Among them is Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who is seeking a fifth term in a district that favored Biden by 5 percentage points in 2020. His opponent is Ashley Ehasz, a former Navy helicopter pilot who won by nearly 10 points two years ago. .
Even very blue New Jersey and Connecticut have at least one competitive race.
In a New Jersey district that includes Trump’s Bedminster golf club, Tom Kean Jr. The Republican U.S. representative is seeking a second term against Democrat Sue Altman, the former leader of the state’s progressive Working Families Alliance.
In Connecticut, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes is again paired with former state Sen. George Logan, who she defeated by less than 1 percentage point two years ago in a district Biden won by 11 percentage points.
In a recent debate, Hayes accused Logan of hiding his support for Trump. Logan denied it, but didn’t say Trump’s name once.
