Democrats sift through ‘unmitigated disaster’ after Trump victory: ANALYSIS

In the end, most voters wanted to back down.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats sent a message to former President Donald Trump and his brand of politics to turn the page, promoting former aides who questioned his commitment to democracy and creating their own plans to address things like rising prices and high housing costs. .

On Wednesday morning, however, they were dealing with a surprise sweep by Trump, now president-elect, who appeared poised to make a swing state and left Democrats wondering how it all went so wrong.

“A complete and utter disaster,” Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis said when asked about the results. “This was a complete rejection of the Democratic message, the Democratic strategy, the candidacy of Harris. There is no way to explain what was a terrible disaster.”

Trump’s victory was profound. He was projected to win or advance all seven swing states in the game, narrowing his margins in blue states from Minnesota to Virginia to New York. Women lost by 10 points after losing 15 in 2020, even after sparking outrage over the elimination of constitutional protections for abortion. And Harris narrowed his lead among Latino voters to 8 points, after losing by 33 points four years ago.

Democrats, still licking their wounds when they spoke with ABC News on Wednesday, had a clean slate of recipes for the party’s woes, both strategically in how the 2024 race played out and the state of the party from coast to coast to state. his coalition

Harris took on a particularly intense series of events, taking on Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee after the president’s botched debate in June dumped jet fuel on concerns about his age and fitness for office.

Many expressed dismay and frustration, worried that Harris’ historic candidacy and the party’s overall brand were not attractive enough to win over voters who backed the twice-impeached former president, who has been convicted of 34 felonies.

Logistically, most noted the compressed timeline. In a country where elections have started to drag on for almost two years, Harris had about 100 days, and some pointed the finger at Biden for continuing the race as in the summer, or even running for office. .

He “never needed” to run for re-election, said Jim Kessler, founder of the center-left think tank Third Way. “The Democrats and the Biden White House didn’t do a good enough job of listening to people, and they were saying loud and clear, ‘your age is a concern.’ they arrived, but it took too long.

Harris and Biden touted policies they said would help Americans deal with rising costs just weeks before the election and hammered Trump for killing a bipartisan bill that would have essentially strengthened border enforcement.

But months before that, the White House insisted the economy was strong, looking at low unemployment numbers and a low stock market while playing down concerns about food costs, and despairing over its inability to stem a rise in unauthorized border crossings. Relying on executive orders that echoed Trump himself.

Meanwhile, Harris, the loyal No. 2, appeared uncomfortable at being distanced from his boss.

Later in the race, he insisted that his administration would not be a “follow-on” to Biden and that he would appoint a Republican to his cabinet, which Biden did not do. But in a viral clip on ABC’s “The View,” he said he couldn’t think of anything he would have done differently with a president who helped strengthen an existing bond. presidential race

“Clearly, voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction, and he became the status quo candidate,” said veteran Democratic strategist James Carville. “And the track record of status quo candidates … is not good.”

Some Democrats summed it up in a phrase Carville himself made famous: It’s the economy, stupid.

A Gallup poll Conducted in September 2020 — the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic — they found that Americans said they were better off than they were four years ago by a 22-point margin. In the same poll last September, Americans thought they were worse off than four years ago by 13 points, a 35-point difference.

“It’s inflation, stupid, isn’t it?” said a source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking. “At the end of the day, the biggest driver of people’s voting behavior is their economic self-interest, and they felt that by and large they were doing pretty well under Donald Trump and they weren’t doing well at the moment. Not to say that other things weren’t important, but their economic conditions superseded they had

Beyond his association with Biden, Harris also hit on one of his favorite arguments against Trump: that he was a threat to democracy.

He sidestepped the issue at the start of the campaign, instead working to present himself in a “happy atmosphere”. But with old administration aides like John Kelly chiding him as undemocratic, he struck a message that Democrats said felt out of touch with the daily struggles of voters.

“Democrats often make the mistake of focusing on long-term issues when voters have immediate concerns. And democracy seems like a long-term issue, and it’s not entirely tangible. But gas prices, food prices, border crossings, a sense. Crime is going up, every day. those you feel,” Kessler said.

Some Democrats saw deeper problems.

Gone are the days when Democrats appealed to working and middle-class Americans. In their place, there were rallies with Beyonce and concerts with Bruce Springsteen, and Democrats, critics say, argued on issues the party was right about rather than empathizing with voters’ underlying concerns.

In short, philosophizing rather than fighting.

“It was the economy, it was inflation, he was worried about the border, and those were, for the most part, the two main issues,” Kofinis said. “We didn’t have a strategy to deal with that. And as a result, we just fed that alienation. Then, in the classic Democratic presidential strategy reminiscent of 2016, we get celebrities and elites to somehow influence and dictate to the average voter how to vote. they need.”

“I joined the Democratic Party because I wanted to fight the NAFTA trade agreements. I joined the Democratic Party because I wanted to drain the swamp in Washington, DC. My community was falling apart. It seems that way, today, we have to take that message,” added strategist Chuck Rocha. the democrats

For the Republicans, everything went right in this election.

Rather than deepening the opposition, Trump’s controversies and legal battles only increased the loyalty of his base. Rather than democratic participation, the abortion ballot measure appeared to offer voters an opportunity to fight for reproductive autonomy while separately registering their dissatisfaction with the current administration. And instead of running against a candidate who offered a fresh perspective from the current White House, Trump ran against the second-highest-ranking official.

Now, the fight will continue with success.

Trump’s tumult has the wind at Republicans’ backs, and if the GOP takes the House of Representatives, it will have at least two years to consolidate a string of accomplishments with a flexible Congress. But deadlines prevent Trump from running again, and remaking his coalition is easier said than done.

“That’s what’s going to be very, very difficult,” said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard, who worked on the 2024 presidential campaign of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — one of the Republicans running for the White House, embracing Trump’s pugilistic style. completely rejected by primary voters this year.

However, recognizing Trump’s gravitas in the country’s politics, some Democrats also said that the way back to electoral success lies with the president-elect.

Voters are hoping to “repeat the economy they liked in his first term. If they can do that, a Democratic comeback in 2028 will be quite difficult. But if his tariffs drive up inflation and his recklessness really shows voters that he doesn’t have the economic special sauce that many believe he has, the real that it will create an opening,” said the source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking.

“It’s tough, but it’s just the reality of Trump in a lot of ways.”