KLIMAWIRE | President Joe Biden announced Thursday that he will strengthen the U.S. climate goal of cutting global-warming pollution by 61-66 percent by 2035, a move his successor will ignore.
The new goal exceeds Biden’s pledge to cut greenhouse gases by 50-52 percent from 2005 levels by 2021, but is a drop from what modelers said would be possible under a future president who acts aggressively to slow rising temperatures.
President-elect Donald Trump has expressed the opposite.
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Instead, the goal will be dropped after Trump takes office, reflecting his promises to expand fossil fuel production and dismantle Biden’s climate agenda.
While the incoming administration may abandon the goal, the goal provides an ambitious benchmark for states, cities and businesses to meet even as President Trump tries to roll back federal climate programs.
“President Biden’s new 2035 climate goal is a reflection of what we’ve already achieved … and a reflection of what we believe the United States can and should achieve in the future,” said John Podesta, senior White House adviser on international climate policy. call with reporters.
The movement is coming under increasing pressure For the Biden administration to make urgent environmental commitments in the final days of the president’s term, even if Trump has no intention of honoring them. US officials say it sends an important signal to the world about what the US can do in the face of these challenges.
“American industry will continue to invent and invest. State, local and tribal governments will continue to move forward,” Biden said in pre-recorded video remarks for the announcement.
It also includes at least a 35 percent reduction in methane, a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas that the Biden administration has made a priority to tackle through global regulations and agreements.
“We are looking for governors, mayors, business leaders and more to carry this important work forward,” Podesta said.
The targets, known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, are required under the Paris Agreement, the global agreement to limit post-industrial warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The White House said it is formally submitting the new target to the United Nations climate change secretariat. Trump is expected to pull out of the deal.
‘North Star’
Observers argued that the new target demonstrates the ability of the world’s largest economy to deal with climate change without federal aid.
“The 2035 climate goal can be a North Star for states, cities and corporations committed to climate action,” Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.
Other advocates echoed that sentiment, saying it could help guide federal policy beyond 2028, or whenever a climate-focused president takes office.
“The 2035 emissions reduction target is at the lower end of what science calls for, and yet near the upper end of what is realistic if almost all available policy levers were pulled,” said Debbie Weyl, US World’s acting director. Resources Institute.
A fact sheet released with the announcement said climate pollution reductions could be achieved through a combination of Biden-era policies; stronger state and local action; and technological advances such as cheaper wind and solar power, nuclear power and grid improvements.
But reaching these marks will not be easy.
A bipartisan push in Congress to ease permitting rules that could speed up renewable energy installations has failed. The Biden administration approved a California plan on Wednesday to phase out gas-powered cars by 2035, but Trump has threatened to roll it back.
Members of the US Climate Alliance, a coalition of mostly Democratic states, are on track to cut greenhouse gases by 26 to 28 percent by next year, but the US is off track to meet Biden’s initial goal of halving emissions five years from now.
“No one hides the ball in this. Our analysis is very clear that additional action is needed to reach our 2030 goal, but there is a clear path forward,” said Casey Katims, executive director of the US Climate Alliance.
Achieving the new goal will also depend on private sector investments. Clean energy tax incentives in Biden’s signature climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, have pumped billions of dollars into clean energy manufacturing across the US.
However, many of these policies are threatened by Trump and congressional Republicans, who have hit out at government rebates used to lower the costs of buying electric cars and other clean energy incentives.
“The talk of repeal and adjustment or cuts also has a chilling effect and delays and reduces the pace and scale of investment,” said Zach Friedman, senior director of federal policy at Ceres, a business sustainability group. “Adjustments to tax credits, deadlines, cuts, etc. have major implications for the amount of investment that returns to American communities.”
Pointing to the height
Before the election, the University of Maryland model Center for Global Sustainability They showed that the US could achieve a 65-67 percent reduction in emissions by 2035. Studies by other groups showed a similar range.
This would put the country on track to achieve zero emissions by 2050. But achieving that goal depends on additional action at the federal, state, and city levels.
An updated policy brief The Center for Global Sustainability published this week assumes reductions of 54-62 percent based on no further federal action, but more at the state level.
Senior administration officials on a call with reporters to anticipate the announcement said such analyzes show it is possible to reduce pollution without aggressive federal action, though they acknowledged it would be more difficult.
“The pace is an issue, of course,” said one official.
Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation, said: “Achieving the proposed goal would certainly require states to strengthen and adopt policies at a level we haven’t seen before.”
Other analyzes looked at some possible worst-case scenarios.
Energy Innovation estimated that U.S. emissions would drop by just 36 percent by 2035 if the SCA were fully repealed. The Rhodium Group projected cuts of 24-40 percent based on rolling back federal climate regulations and completely repealing the SCA. Neither analysis suggests additional action at the state level.
Analysts say it’s unlikely the Inflation Relief Act will fully pan out, especially as its benefits roll out across the nation.
But even with the SCA, the U.S. still falls short of its goal of cutting emissions by 50-52 percent by 2030 — Biden’s original goal. A July analysis The Rhodium Group found that the US is on track to reduce its climate pollution by 32-43% by 2030, putting it on track to reduce it by 38-56% by 2035.
Biden was “making a mark” with the new goal, said Alden Meyer, a senior fellow at environmental think tank E3G.
“Everybody understands that meeting that goal is going to be very difficult, given that Trump is going to drive us off the field in the next four years,” Meyer said. “But they understand what it is: what the U.S. should be doing.”
Reprinted E&E News Courtesy of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
