December 13, 2024
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Storm-chasing planes are taking atmospheric rivers to improve forecasts
Better forecasting would help communities prepare for extreme weather from the atmospheric rivers that cause an average of $1 billion in damage per year on the West Coast.
A resident looks over a flooded road on November 22, 2024 in Forestville, California. A strong atmospheric river brought heavy rains and winds to San Francisco Bay for several days.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
KLIMAWIRE | New England was still recovering Friday from extreme weather that dumped rainfall across the region and left tens of thousands of residents without power.
The midweek storm, driven by a weather system known as an atmospheric river, produced wind gusts of up to 60 miles per hour and gave Providence, Rhode Island, possibly its wettest winter day on record — with 5 inches of rain. preliminary reports.
Atmospheric rivers are nothing new to meteorologists, but they are difficult to predict.
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Like their counterparts on Earth, atmospheric rivers move large amounts of water. They can carry through the air a volume of water vapor more than 10 times the water flow of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Extreme humidity goes hand in hand with heavy cloud cover, making it difficult for satellites to accurately observe and meteorologists to develop forecasts.
But now scientists say they are making progress in predicting their behavior.
Researchers from the National Weather Service at the University of California, San Diego and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have teamed up on a project called the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program, or AR Recon.
The program gets around the satellite problem by collecting direct measurements from buoys and special instruments dropped in the ocean and by aircraft, including NOAA’s weather monitoring G-IV aircraft and the Air Force Reserve’s famed “Hurricane Hunters.”
Local data have already led to significant improvements in atmospheric river forecasts. Models using these measurements showed a 12 percent improvement in forecasts for Central California and a 6 percent improvement for the entire continental United States.
These improvements “are moving the needle for the first time in two decades,” said Vijay Tallapragada, a senior scientist at NOAA’s Center for Environmental Modeling.
Tallapragada is the principal investigator of the AR Recon program along with Marty Ralph, director of the Scripps Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.
Advances in forecasting are a big deal, especially on the West Coast, where studies suggest atmospheric rivers cause an average of $1 billion in damage each year.
Accurate information about the timing and location of an atmospheric river’s landfall—and the amount of moisture it carries—also helps western water managers strategically release supplies from their water reservoirs in advance, reducing the risk of damaging floods.
Expansion plans
The AR Recon program was launched in 2016 with three aircraft missions. These flights are carefully imaged by scientists in real time each winter as weather systems develop, directing aircraft to fly in specially designed patterns to gather data on atmospheric rivers.
The program has continued to expand over the years, and now operates dozens of flights this winter. This year will be his most ambitious season yet.
From early January through early March, two Air Force Reserve aircraft will be based in California and fully assigned to AR Recon, and one NOAA aircraft will be based in Hawaii. And two more aircraft will be deployed for the first time in Japan from late January to mid-February to collect new observations in the western Pacific.
Ships and planes will also deploy about 80 buoys across the ocean this season. And scientists will release weather balloons from stations in Washington and California to make additional measurements.
In future seasons, AR Recon scientists plan to expand their work and expand flights from the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.
And this year they are starting a new partnership with US universities with the goal of expanding balloon sightings across the country. The pilot will begin this winter with five university partners, with the goal of expanding to 25 universities by February 2026.
The program will also link up with European partners for a month-long experiment in early 2026, with European aircraft alongside US aircraft to improve data collection over the Atlantic.
At the moment, atmospheric river forecasts are the most accurate for three to four days, Tallapragada said. The goal of the program is to improve those forecasts to seven to 10 days, giving emergency officials and water managers more time to plan for heavy rainfall and try to mitigate flood risks.
“I think it’s possible with the combined efforts of the various agencies and the assets we have,” Tallapragada said. “The intention is to make significant advances in our forecasting technologies and bring about major changes in our ability to forecast stationary precipitation.”
The threat of atmospheric rivers has recently attracted the attention of lawmakers. Last year, Congress passed the Atmospheric Rivers Recognition, Observation, and Warning Act through the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2024, which called for winter season monitoring of West Coast atmospheric river systems.
And U.S. Sens. Alex Padilla (Calif.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) introduced a new bill in November, known as the Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act, that would require NOAA to establish a new observing and forecasting program within the National. Weather Service
“In recent years, California communities have seen firsthand the constant threat of devastating flooding caused by intense and frequent atmospheric river storms,” Padilla said in a statement. “California scientists have led the way in improving our understanding of these storms, and this bipartisan bill will strengthen prospects for reducing flood risks and increasing our water supply and drought resilience.”
Reprinted E&E News Courtesy of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
