Arsenal’s transfer challenge over striker issue: Alexander Isak highlights need for a killer but no easy solution in January | Football News

Mikel Arteta’s comments about the Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines following Arsenal’s semi-final first-leg defeat to Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing response from his press conference was about Alexander Isak’s influence.

“I don’t think he created or had many chances, but he was involved in both goals, unfortunately both times when he kept the ball in the box,” Arteta said of Issac’s winning contribution.

“That’s what you have when you have real quality first.”

It was an unusually frank comment from the Arsenal manager, the not-so-subtle implication being that he doesn’t have a striker of that caliber. Arsenal are certainly one of the suitors for the 25-year-old. His performance at the Emirates Stadium highlighted why :

While Isak took his chances to score the opener and set up Newcastle’s second with his two strikes, Arsenal had nothing to show for it after 23 attempts.Their expected goals total of 3.09 was the highest by a Premier League side without scoring all season.

On the one hand, it’s positive that they were able to create so many chances without their most creative player in Bukayo Sakai, and with Martin Odegaard clearly sub-par after a bout of illness that limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.

But the lack of modernity has become a theme. Tuesday’s game was the sixth of the season in which they failed to score. There have been seven other games in which they have scored only one goal. Only three of those games have ended in victory.

Arteta is under surveillance. His team’s perceived reliance on shots, as much as their struggle to convert chances, is not the only manager for whom this is a problem.

The percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored a maximum of one goal is actually the third lowest in the Premier League this season, the question is that it is much higher than Liverpool, who are fighting to stay at the top of the table.

It is not news for “Arsenal” either.

Arsenal set a club record with 91 goals in the Premier League last season, but have failed to find the back of the net in eight games in all competitions, with eventual champions Manchester City playing just four matches this campaign :

Arteta built a great defence. Their mistakes against Newcastle were uncharacteristic, but recent history shows the value of firepower, in addition to defensive stinginess, when it comes to claiming the biggest prizes.

Kai Havertz has proved invaluable up front, his latest goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions, and he put up strong numbers last season as well, while Gabriel Jesus is at his best since joining Arsenal scored the assist.

But both players are insanely frustrating finishers, something that shines through in the underlying data.

While Arsenal’s centre-forwards have exceeded their expected targets to varying degrees over the past three seasons, even with recent relegations, their number 9s have done the opposite.

According to Opta’s expected goals model, Havertz and Jesus have scored about five goals less than they should based on the quality of their chances.For Havertz, Tuesday’s game, when he missed 1.13 xG worth of chances, epitomized the problem.

Why are Isak, Kunya and Mbumo appealing?

The timing was particularly unfortunate given the exploits of his opponent Isak at the other end of the pitch.

His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, 15th of the season and 50th in 89 games since joining Newcastle in 2022 from Real Sociedad for £63m.

There is no exact science to the art of scoring, but the best finishers usually score more goals than “expected”, often aided by the ability to convert more complex as well as simpler chances, which usually translates into consistent xG outperformance.

These players have a knack for deciding fringe games, and Isak is certainly one of them.The underlying figures for the last three seasons show that he has scored nearly four goals more than expected, scoring 44 Premier League goals, 40.45 from xG.

It’s worth noting that Wolves striker Matheus Cunha and Brentford’s Brian Mbumo, Arsenal’s other two attacking targets, have shown similar ability.

Cunha’s total of 24 goals from 15.6 xG gives him the second-highest positive differential of any Premier League player since the start of the 2022/23 season not far behind him with a total of 31 goals at 25.69 xG.

Arteta is well aware that Arsenal have to finish. His comments in his press conference after Isak’s defeat on Tuesday left no doubt. But revealing targets is one thing. securing them, especially in the middle of the season, is another.

Isak is said to be valued at £150m and has little reason to leave and his club will have little incentive to sell as he leads their bid for silverware and a return to the Champions League , but never mind January.

Kunia and Mbumo are equally important to Wolves and Brentford, and while the latter’s contract is up to 18 months, the former are in talks over a new deal.

Arsenal’s other option is to look abroad, but the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League, particularly in the off-season, is such that the club have generally favored Premier League-ready signings under Arteta.

In other words, there is no easy solution. But Arsenal will have to do their best to find someone even in difficult circumstances.The need for more fire was evident even before Sakha’s injury. Tuesday’s loss and Arteta’s comments afterwards only highlighted the problem.