Donald Trump’s overall vote has fallen below 50 percent, and his lead over Kamala Harris has narrowed significantly when all votes are counted.
Former President Donald Trump speaks after announcing the winner of the 2024 presidential election at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida on November 6, 2024.
(Jobin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” said Donald Trump declared early morning on November 6, 2024. after all polling stations are closed. Indeed, he declared that he won “a political victory the likes of which our country has never seen before.” Trump was delighted with the numbers, which showed he had won more than 50 percent of the vote and established a wide lead over his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Unfortunately for the president-elect, The United States needs time count 155 million votes — plus or minus a million — and the actual result will deprive Trump of bragging rights.
Trump can no longer claim this powerful mandate. By most reasonable standards, the starting point for such a claim in a two-party system is an overwhelming majority of votes for your candidacy. Trump no longer has it.
Over the weekend, as California, Oregon, Washington and other western states neared the end of vote counting, Trump’s voting percentage fell below 50 percent. And his lead looks much smaller than originally expected. In fact, of all 59 presidential elections since the nation’s founding, it appears that — after all 2024 votes are counted — only five winners of the popular vote in history have prevailed by a narrower percentage margin than Trump.
Trump’s lead in the polls has steadily declined since election night. As of Monday afternoon, Trump was in 49.94 percentwhile Harris was in the 48.26reports the authority Cook Political Reporttracking results from official sources in states across the country. And we can expect the Republican total to only shrink as heavily Democratic states on the West Coast finish counting.
Trump still leads Harris in the polls. He also maintains a lead in the crucial, if absurdly anti-Democratic, Electoral College — a little less than Barack Obama’s in 2012, a little more than Joe Biden’s in 2020 — based on a pattern of victories in contested states. Therefore, failure to win a majority will not cost Trump the presidency. But he has lost the ability to believe that he has defeated a Democrat. In fact, she is now lagging behind him 1.68 percent of the vote.
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Let’s put it this way in perspective: This year, Trump is getting a lower percentage of the vote than Biden in 2020 (51.3), Obama in 2012 (51.1), Obama in 2008 (52.9), George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7) , George W. Bush in 1988. (53.2), Ronald Reagan in 1984 (58.8), Reagan in 1980 (50.7) or Jimmy Carter in 1976 (50.1). And, of course, Trump’s numbers are well below those of presidents who won what can reasonably be called “unprecedented and powerful” mandates, such as Richard Nixon’s 60.7% in 1972, Lyndon Johnson’s 61.1% in 1964, or 60 .8% Franklin Delano Roosevelt. percent. As Trump’s percentage continues to decline, he will fall below the threshold achieved by most presidents of the last century.
Harris, on the other hand, looks a lot stronger than he did on election night. In fact, the Democrat now has a higher percentage of the vote than Presidents Trump in 2016 (46.1), Bush in 2000 (47.9), Clinton in 1992 (43) or Nixon in 1968 (43.4). She also did significantly better than recent major-party nominees such as Trump in 2020 (46.8), Trump in 2016 (48.2), Mitt Romney in 2012 (47.2), John McCain in In 2008 (45.7), George W. Bush in 2000. (47.9), Bob Dole in 1996 (40.7), George W. Bush in 1992 (37.4), Michael Dukakis in 1988 (45.6), Walter Mondale (40.6), Carter in 1980 ( 41) or Gerald Ford in 1976 (48).
Yes, some of these historical results have been affected by the presence of strong third-party competitors. But most were not. And the bottom line is that the gap between Trump and Harris is smaller than the gap between the major-party rivals in the vast majority of American presidential races.
Why mention all the presidents who ran better than Trump? Why debate the narrowness of his lead over Harris? Why, in addition, believe that the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate will be one of the narrowest in modern American history? Because it puts the outcome of the 2024 election into perspective — and thus gives members of both parties an idea of how to respond when Trump claims that an unappealing candidate or policy should be accepted out of respect for his “powerful” mandate.
Trump’s victory was not of “epic” or “historic” proportions. was not”landslide” for the once and future president, as Fox News repeatedly suggested in post-election headlines. The election did not produce the “decisive victory” for Trump that the Associated Press mentioned immediately after the vote. Nor did it deliver a “stunning defeat” for Harris, as the AP reported at the time.
That won’t matter to Trump, who claimed the mandate even though he lost the 2016 election by nearly 3 million ballots. four years later, Trump refused to admit defeat by more than 7 million votes and denied that Biden’s majority in the 2020 election amounted to anything like a mandate.
Those numbers are better for Democrats than those recorded on election night, and what many pundits continue to believe. That doesn’t mean, however, that a clearer picture of the results should dissuade Democrats from looking for ways to reform their party. Even if the margins are smaller than originally thought, the party still failed to defeat Trump and the Republican Party, which embraces the destructive policies of not only its presidential candidate, but also the billionaire class. This is a time for serious reflection on the mistakes made and the challenges ahead as part of the necessary study of how to build a multi-racial, multi-ethnic coalition of the working class that can win decisively, not just at the presidential level, but also in the fight to regain control. over the House and Senate in 2026.
What the numbers do give Democrats and progressives, however, is an argument against despair and capitulation, especially as the debate unfolds over Trump’s cabinet picks, judicial nominees and legislative priorities.
“Research shows that mandate claims, despite having a weak connection to reality, can effectively influence legislative behavior.” notes Julia Azari, assistant professor of political science at Marquette University, author Delivering the People’s Message: Changing the Politics of the Presidential Mandate. “Political research shows that legislators will change their behavior in response to the perception of mandate elections, but only for a long time.”
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The first months of Trump’s presidency will largely determine the nature of his second term. Democrats and a handful of thoughtful Republicans have the potential to rein in Trump’s worst excesses and ensure the Constitution’s system of checks and balances is preserved. When Trump opposes congressional oversight by arguing that his appointments and policies reflect the will of the voters, members of the House and Senate can counter that bogus claim by explaining that most Americans didn’t vote for him.
We cannot retreat
We now face a second Trump presidency.
There is nothing to lose. We must use our fears, our grief, and yes, our anger to oppose the dangerous policies that Donald Trump is unleashing on our country. We rededicate ourselves to our role as principled and honest journalists and authors.
Today we are also preparing for the future struggle. It will require a fearless spirit, an informed mind, wise analysis and humane resistance. We are faced with the passage of Project 2025, a far-right Supreme Court, political authoritarianism, rising inequality and record homelessness, a looming climate crisis and conflicts abroad. Nation will expose and propose, develop investigative reporting and act together as a community to preserve hope and opportunity. NationThe work will continue — as it has in good times and bad — to develop alternative ideas and visions, deepen our mission of truth-telling and in-depth reporting, and expand solidarity in a divided nation.
Armed with 160 years of courageous independent journalism, our mandate remains the same today as it was when the Abolitionists were founded Nation— to defend the principles of democracy and freedom, to serve as a beacon in the darkest days of resistance, and to see and fight for a bright future.
The day is dark, the forces are building tenaciously, but it’s too late Nation editorial board member Toni Morrison wrote “No! This is just the time when artists go to work. No time for despair, no room for self-pity, no need for silence, no room for fear. We speak, we write, we make language. This is how civilizations heal.”
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Katrina Vanden Heuvel
Editorial Director and Publisher, Nation
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