Forest fires in the tropics caused some increase in CO2 emissions, but most of it was driven by fossil fuel burning
Carl De Souza/AFP/Getty Images
Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels will surpass last year’s record levels in 2024, and this year is expected to see a peak in global warming emissions.
“Emissions reduction is more urgent than ever and there is only one way to do it: a massive reduction in fossil emissions,” he says. Pierre Friedlingstein at the University of Exeter, UK.
That’s according to the latest global carbon budget the reportBy Friedlingstein and his colleagues, a preliminary accounting of CO2 emissions to date with projections for the end of the year. was released in COP29 summit now underway in Azerbaijan, as countries seek to set new financial targets to combat climate change.
Last year, some researchers predicted a the peak of emissions in 2024, but the report says that human-caused CO2 emissions will reach a record 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024, 2% more than the 2023 record. Almost 90% of this is made up of emissions from burning fossil fuels. The rest comes from land changes driven by deforestation and forest fires.
At 0.8 percent, the growth rate of fossil fuel emissions is half that of 2023, although it remains higher than the average rate of the past decade. “(The slower rate) is a good sign, but it’s still miles from where we need to be,” Friedlingstein says.
Despite the long-term downward trend, projected emissions from land-use change have also increased this year, largely due to drought-driven wildfires in the tropics. Some of the increases have also gone down the collapse of the carbon sink In 2023, which typically removes a quarter of our annual CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. This sink dropped by more than 40% last year and in early 2024, global temperatures rose due to El Niño.
“2023 is a dramatic demonstration of what could happen in a warmer world when we had peak temperatures combined with El Niño droughts and wildfires,” he says. Pep Canadell At Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, co-author of the report. “Put all these things together and last year we had almost a third less atmospheric CO2 removal from the world’s forests than in the last decade.”
Although this has also added to emissions in 2024, the researchers expect this “soil carbon sink” to have mostly recovered. The warming effect of El Niño it has faded. “It’s not a long-term collapse,” says Friedlingstein.
The report says China’s CO2 emissions, which account for nearly a third of global emissions, are expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. Canadell says there is a large margin of error in this projection of China’s emissions, which it really is they may have remained stable or declined. Emissions in India also grew at a slower pace than last year, barely 5 percent. Emissions in the US and EU continued to fall, albeit at a much slower pace than last year.
Hot temperatures that increased demand for electricity A key reason for powering air conditioning is that fossil fuel emissions will continue to grow despite the massive development of renewables in 2024, he says. Neil Grant At Climate Analytics, a German think tank. Whether it’s electric vehicles, data centers or manufacturing, “most people have been a little surprised by the level of electricity demand this year,” he says.
If emissions continue at this level, the report says the world will overtake the rest within six years carbon budget limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and exceeding the budget to stay within 2°C of warming in 27 years.
“We need to accelerate, accelerate, accelerate, accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” says Candell. “Climate change is like a slippery slope that we can keep falling down. We have to hit the brakes as hard as possible to stop falling.’
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