November 8, 2024
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What Trump can—and probably can’t—do to reverse US climate policy
The new president-elect may go beyond withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. But rolling back clean energy policies may be more difficult
In 2019, then-President Donald Trump visited a liquefied natural gas facility in Hackberry, Louisiana.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
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The conversationan online publication featuring the latest research.
As the US prepares for another Trump administration, one area of concern for the incoming president is climate policy.
Although he has not released an official climate agenda, Donald Trump’s last session in the Oval Office and his book frequent complaints about clean energy offer some clues about the future.
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Exiting the Paris climate agreement
With less than six months to go before the first presidency, Trump formally in 2017 he announced his retirement United States From the Paris climate agreement– Almost all countries signed the 2015 international agreement as a commitment to work to keep rising temperatures and other impacts of climate change under control.
This time, the bigger but understated risk is that Trump won’t stick to the Paris Agreement.
In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Agreement again, Trump could try to withdraw the United States From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 1992 treaty is the basis of international climate talks. Withdrawing from that treaty would make it nearly impossible for a future administration to rejoin the UNFCCC treaty, as it would require the consent of two-thirds of the Senate.
The reverberations of such a step would be felt throughout the world. While the Paris Agreement is not legally binding and it is based on trust and leadershipThe stance taken by the world’s largest economy influences what other countries are willing to do.
It would also give China climate leadership.
U.S. funding to help other countries increase clean energy and adapt to climate change increased significantly during the Biden administration. US International Climate Finance Plan It provided $11 billion to help in 2024 emerging and developing economies. And US commitments The International Development Finance Corporation rose it was nearly $14 billion in the first two years of Biden’s presidency, compared to $12 billion in Trump’s four years. Biden pledged $3 billion to the United Nations. Green Climate Fund.
Under President Trump, all of these efforts will be curtailed again.
Targeting clean energy may not be so easy
In other areas, however, Trump may be less successful.
He has spoken rolling back clean energy policies. However, it may be more difficult to eliminate the Biden administration’s massive investments in clean energy, which coincide with the investments in infrastructure and manufacturing required in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Since both are laws passed by Congress, Trump would need majorities in both Houses to repeal them.
Even if Republicans end up with the trifecta (control of both houses of Congress and the White House), repealing these laws will be a challenge. That’s because the benefits of the laws are far-reaching red states. Trump’s allies in the oil and gas industry also take advantage of the tax credits included in the carbon capture, advanced biofuels and hydrogen laws.
However, while the Anti-Inflation Act has not been repealed, it will almost certainly be changed. A tax credit for consumers buying electric vehicles is likely to be on the chopping block, as are tightening EPA regulations. sewage pollution standards, making battery-powered cars uneconomical for many.
Trump might too Slow down the work of the Department of Energy Loan Program Officewhich has helped promote several clean energy industries. Again, this is not surprising – he did it in his first term – except that the impact would be greater since the lending capacity of the office. It rose to more than $200 billionThanks to the Inflation Suppression Act. So far, about a quarter of the total has been distributed, so there is a rush to pick up the pace before the new administration begins in January.
Drill, baby, drill?
Trump also speaks increasing the production of fossil fuelsand will almost certainly take steps to boost the industry through deregulation and opening up more federal land for drilling. But the prospects for a massive increase in oil and gas production appear slim.
The United States is producing more crude oil than ever before. They are oil and gas companies buy back shares and pay dividends to shareholders at a record pace, which they would not do if they saw better investment opportunities.
The futures curve points to lower oil prices, which could weigh on it even more slowing demand from any resulting economic weakness If Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on all imports, it risks lower profitability.
Trump will likely try to push back climate policies related to fossil fuels and emissionswhat are they the main source of climate changeas he did dozens of policies in his first administration.
This involves removing a new federal charging for methane emissions from certain facilities – the first attempt by the US government to impose a fee or tax on greenhouse gas emissions. Methane is the main component of natural gas and a powerful greenhouse gas.
So does Trump he promised to help liquefied natural gas, or LNG, approvals for new export terminals, which He tried to disrupt the Biden administration and it is still working to slow it down.
Markets have a say in the future of clean energy
A clean energy source that is Trump it is likely that nuclear energy will gather behind it.
And despite the criticism of wind and solar, investments in renewable energy will likely continue to rise due to market dynamics, especially as onshore wind and utility solar projects evolve. more cost effective than coal or gas.
However, the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and Trump’s regulatory and policy uncertainty would slow the pace of investment. It is likely to negate the expected inflationary effect of its economic policies benefits of lower cost of capital this was expected to lead to central banks lowering interest rates this year. It’s an outcome that a warming planet cannot afford.
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